A Cautionary Note to my Degen Frens
I feel as if we are in a particularly interesting and dangerous time right now. I know that you feel it too – and frankly, you probably don’t know what to make of it. Don’t feel bad about that.
As someone who has been paying attention to these kinds of shifts in our collective consciousness for most of my five decades – I can tell you one thing for certain. EVERYTHING is about to be very different. This was the feeling that was in the air just prior to Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Iraq and the intensity is reminiscent of the time that Bush I began ramping up for the 1st Gulf War.
The same nervous energy you are feeling right now was running rampant just prior to the dot-com crash and had reached a fever pitch in the days just prior to the airliners being piloted into the Twin Towers. In the days running up to the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan – this sort of energy was coursing through the markets. And that overarching feeling of dread you may be sensing was present as traders and real estate speculators euphorically swapped derivatives and sub prime mortgages.
In the days leading up to the Arab Spring – the souks and medinas of the Arab world were alive with this chaotic energy. The start of the pandemic was quiet but for those paying attention – their hair was standing on end. It was clear that it was upon us even before we knew what it was. There is something big about to happen. Something that will definitively mark time with a before – and – after.
I wouldn’t worry about trying to time the markets on this. If you are invested in good companies, worthwhile projects, and assets that have true value – you can be sure that they will dip hard and eventually they will recover. If you are invested in overpriced shit – well – good luck. Maybe you will get lucky. I wouldn’t be investing in trailer parks in Boca Raton right now, let’s put it that way.
Maybe it’s all just wishful thinking on my part – but my hair is definitely standing on end. The only thing I can really suggest is that you prepare for a period of chaos that you can’t possibly prepare for. I don’t think this is the supply a bunker type of thing or a World War blah event – but I do think that we are about to get a massive change that will last for a while. And – I hope I’m wrong.
So what am I doing? What can I do? I have no idea of what is coming. I’ve set as much fiat currency by in my bank as I can to cover my family if things go haywire. There’s nowhere safer to put it, but it’s not really safe when you think about how much fuckery goes on with banks and how much fuckery they’ve caused in the past – but honestly, if the banks crumble – we’ll all have much bigger problems – and I just don’t see that happening…yet. I’m also trying to move my investments from speculatory to productive assets – but who am I kidding – 90% of my portfolio is speculatory and those prices are too low for me to sell now.
It’s been pretty clear that we were in denial of being in a bear market for some time now. Me too. But here we are. It’s on us. One thing I’m not doing is throwing good money after bad – and from the looks of it – neither are most of you. So, what can we do? Hold on. Be patient and encourage creators who run the projects you are invested in to stay positive and keep creating – make it easy for them not to rug because I’ll tell you one thing for sure – if everyone invested in a project becomes a huge pain in the ass with floor, wen?, and hey devs – the creators will eventually decide to stop coming to work – so give em your love, not your hate.
Mostly, I just want to say that this is going to suck – but there is going to be some huge reality shifting opportunity that comes from it – so watch for it. I’ll be watching for it too. Maybe together, we can find it and grab it, protect it, nurture it, and share it – before the life sucking profiteers manage to fence it and monetize it.
That’s all. Be safe out there.