NFT Advice from Some Pros – #1 – Investor Psychology

I’m fortunate to be involved in a couple of groups of people who I deem experts on the topic of NFTs and Cryptocurrency. It’s still kind of hard for me to get my head around the fact that I’ve flipped this site on it’s head and turned it into an NFT/crypto site – but when it comes down to it – I haven’t made any money from travel or blogging in a long time – and the enjoyment I’ve gotten from either is almost as distant a memory. So, for as much as I find the NFT and Crypto spaces to be frustrating, annoying, and stressful – I’m also more than a little obsessed with both. Also, I like to write – and in the world we live in – that’s a problem.

People consider this⬆️ above to be a ‘wall of text’ – unbelievable but true – so I’ll bring my longer form writing here and also share it in the Vagobond Discord. With that being said – here is some good advice.

This comes from two guys in our Intelligence Desk Channel:JaggerForReal and IncarnadineAubergine

Investor Psychology in NFTs:

Part 1:

Specifically NFT investments with large discord user base. At least 1.5 members:NFT ratio

Need to consider: internal and external factors. Internal factors are passionate group members who easily get FOMO. External factors are dispassionate investors, many of whom have the ability to mint way above average numbers of said NFT and only care about profiting off them.

Phases: 1 – pre mint. 2 – early access for ‘loyal/lucky group members. 3 – Public Sale. 4 – pre reveal period. 5 -reveal
Phase 1 everyone wants in, thinks they are going to be a millionaire, make a big gain. Dispassionate investors watch quietly, only looking at numbers
Phase 2 – Lucky group get to mint without gas war (this is the only group that pays close to mint price). Some will be happy to sell or list at 4x profit, which is normally the trading range. At the same time, group remains hyped, but normally ‘hold off’ on actually buying, as they still have the prospect of getting in at mint price (even though gas costs in reality make this unlikely)
Phase 3 – 4 public sale. The majority miss out. Dispassionate investors who are better resourced normally take a decent chunk of them. Initially the group is annoyed, but enough people get one and are excited, that FOMO prevails. After a brief period, floor rises, usually to just under 10x mint price. The passionate investors need their ticket to not miss out. The dispassionate/calculated investor holds a big stake, normally at 2.5-3x floor price paid.
Phase 5 reveal. Only about 10% from the collection are ‘special’. The Dispassionate investor see’s what they have, keep any good stuff and quickly sells average pieces at floor, this sends floor price down. 50% of Passionate investors panic, having spent (for them) a lot of money, and pursue the floor price down to not lose money. This causes further downward floor pressure, reinforcing the sell quickly strategy amongst the panicked. 50% say diamond hands. Floor can crash quite spectacularly.
These patterns are repeated in NEARLY EVERY drop Ive looked at. The buy/sell points ‘seem’ fairly clear. Timing the absolute floor can be difficult. The last one I looked at was the sevens, which dropped from 2.5 to 0.4
In this instance, a ‘whale’ minted 1000, but gave 500 back (dont know why, probably felt over leveraged). The team spent ages deciding how to distribute them to people who tried to mint. Naturally, this disincentivised buying, as why buy, when you still have a chance at the floor. I didn’t time my buy perfectly (0.5), but since distribution, buying has increased (there were 34k discord users), and I think this will only increase.
Other projects dont recover at all. Key is to look and appraise art, perceived demand, and what team plan on doing to see if worth buying in.

Part 2: 

I missed 4 months of NFTs but since April i joined here and basically shared my journey here asking and answering questions. It’s been amazing. I bougth 3 Pak Cubes for $500 each, now they peaked at 5 eth each last week or so. I mean solpunks, and punk comics are just 2 things i look at on my spreadsheet and my head spins. There will be dozens of opportunity, jus postion yourselves to know the industry inside out !!!!!

Spend your time analysing projects by: team composition (check their twitters, sometimes folks don’t realize a great person is on a team) team dedication even after initial pump and dump (they lined their pockets, they can piss off if they wanted) Study volume patterns of most projects and why they end up pumping and becoming blue chips (I’ll post the roboto example I showed my family member in a minute, it worked out, i looked like a genius) Find great sites to help you navigate the space. Do your own work, don’t solely rely on discords to help you find everything

https://nftsignal.io/degentracker

https://cryptoslam.io/

https://rarity.tools/

https://dune.xyz/browse/dashboards

https://icy.tools/

DegenTracker – NFTSignal.io – Track which projects NFT influencers are aping into in real time. CryptoSlam! NFT data, rankings, prices, sales volume charts, market… An NFT industry data aggregator backed by Mark Cuban. Features project analytics, NFT values, rarity, scarcity, most popular collections, activity history & more. rarity.tools NFTs ranked and sorted by rarity. See the rarest CryptoPunks, Bored Ape Yacht Club, Hashmasks, Gutter Cat Gang and many more NFT collections. Dashboards Ethereum Ecosystem analytics by and for the community. Explore and share data from Ethereum Mainnet, Matic, Optimism and xDai for free. icy.tools icy.tools – NFT trends, price data & tracking Get the latest floor price, volume, & sales history on NFTs. Discover new projects being minted now & track portfolios.

Here’s the robotos example https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/879274319820230716/888962753434353695/robotos.png https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/879274319820230716/889582827409133568/robotos.2png.png

See the initial pump and dump, followed by a liquidity test pump on 8th september… then a failed retest on the 13th, then the true pump. Most of them do this .. on their way to being a Bluechip, this should be enough homeworkz that chart is from cryptoslam site ii posted above, totally free.

Part 3:

It’s great being able to plan and have trades come to you, that’s the best way way if you ask me. And that’s just one strategy of many you should have under your belt  . That above example may have not been the best example as it pumped and dumped , but as you explore, you’ll see the pattern, so if you do get in one of these volume pumps, getting out (before the top) is as important as getting in early. You need to train yourself to sell on the way up, it’s not easily and it’s not human nature. It may pump much more, but who cares, just get in after it crosses your trend line and sell once you see any sign of weakness. Honestly, i did this for bayc here and posted it a few weeks back and just this week it’s getting popular on twitter now due to better tools being available. But even with all the tools like cryptoslam, icy tools, nansen.ai and others, this pattern should remain.

Here’s a good guy to view https://twitter.com/NFTLlama/status/1439121774898290692 If anyone has thoughts, i’d love to hear. NFT Llama (@NFTLlama) What is your opinion on minting projects nowadays? I’ve had greater success buying projects after the initial mint selll-off stage and when volume begins to pick up – such as the chart below. This is where I enter the markets down below. I only mint blatant winners now wbu? Twitter•09/17/2021 He’s a pumper, but he’s also smart. lol ok, im gonna stfu, i’m having a week of relaxation, i’m burned out. Be healthy everyone !

Also since you guys mentioned profits, please please remember that we are in a bull market right now. Everything is up which makes everyone feel like a genius for buying in. The bear will come as it always has. The usual warnings apply, don’t invest more than you are willing to lose. Remember to cash out your profits or at least park some into stablecoins. No one really knows how nfts will perform in a bear market since the space is so new. My personal stance for nfts is, buy it if you like it. There’s many really nice artwork out there, but I wouldn’t pay 1k for a profile pic for example. I’d pay that for something I’d hang on my wall maybe. Don’t know how many of you guys are old enough in the space to remember the last bear market so just a friendly reminder

Oh yes I love HEN but sadly I’m too lazy to set up a tezos wallet. Shvembldr does some really cool work and if you get into his club u can get free mints of his stuff.

I was lucky enough to get to mint 2 alien clocks and bought a few afterwards, I didn’t think they would appreciate like they did, but i’m not whale enough to get into his club tho 😦 haha, get that tezos wallet, look at those tezzards tho. I see good things happening there.